Precipitation Arb
Polymarket monthly precipitation vs OpenMeteo Archive (past month deterministic) + climatology forecast
deactivated
mode paper
uptime n/a
Service deactivated
Last trade
2026-05-05T16:01:15.880113+00:00
Database
/home/trbck/wp/oddsoddy/strategies/precipitation_arb/paper_run_20260505_160009.db
Tables
positions, scan_log
Open
15
Closed
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Realized
$+0.00
Unrealized
$-12.84
Combined
$-12.84
Profit Factor
n/a
Max DD
$0.00
Open Positions (15 shown)
| entry_time | market_title | side | bet_side | entry_price | peak_price | quantity | cost | pnl | status | yes_price_entry | expiry_time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05T16:01:15.880113+00:00 | Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.7850 | 0.8250 | 31.84713375796178 | $25.25 | open | 0.2250 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:13.388024+00:00 | Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.8300 | 0.8650 | 30.12048192771084 | $25.25 | open | 0.1800 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:10.981963+00:00 | Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.8050 | 0.9300 | 31.05590062111801 | $25.25 | open | 0.2050 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:08.373708+00:00 | Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.8440 | 0.9700 | 29.620853080568722 | $25.25 | open | 0.1660 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:04.782024+00:00 | Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? | NO | below | 0.8065 | 0.8970 | 30.998140111593305 | $25.25 | open | 0.2035 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:01.841739+00:00 | Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | above | 0.6050 | 0.7750 | 41.32231404958678 | $25.25 | open | 0.4050 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:59.184112+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.6250 | 0.7600 | 40.0 | $25.25 | open | 0.3850 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:56.028561+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.5900 | 0.7250 | 42.3728813559322 | $25.25 | open | 0.4200 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:46.362772+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.7550 | 0.8500 | 33.11258278145695 | $25.25 | open | 0.2550 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:43.458691+00:00 | Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | below | 0.7100 | 0.7100 | 35.21126760563381 | $25.25 | open | 0.3000 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:40.282765+00:00 | Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | above | 0.7500 | 0.7800 | 33.333333333333336 | $25.25 | open | 0.2600 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:36.909363+00:00 | Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.7850 | 0.8450 | 31.84713375796178 | $25.25 | open | 0.2250 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:29.562244+00:00 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.5950 | 0.6000 | 42.016806722689076 | $25.25 | open | 0.4150 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:24.829345+00:00 | Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May? | NO | between | 0.6750 | 0.6900 | 37.03703703703704 | $25.25 | open | 0.3350 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z | |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:20.450008+00:00 | Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? | YES | between | 0.2550 | 0.4000 | 98.0392156862745 | $25.25 | open | 0.2450 | 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z |
Recent Closed Positions
No closed paper positions matched this strategy row.
Recent Scan Log (21 shown)
| scanned_at | market_title | decision | reason | yes_price | p_model | edge | market_id | city | bet_side | source_label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05T16:01:15.894354+00:00 | Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2250 | 0.0000 | 0.2250 | 0x95f1ac7dc9ceb7c682529ad7942bdb7efd2b545a754338e99cb0fa323036eba0 | london | between | partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3 |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:13.395682+00:00 | Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.1800 | 0.0000 | 0.1800 | 0x1f377b1648c0dada9059f5beedb119cf1455c1c94c81947f8c2ff7ac6c3f0cc8 | london | between | partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3 |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:10.992116+00:00 | Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2050 | 0.0000 | 0.2050 | 0xe3e0191062e5f8930c2f23f61dd1216139084767799c257a6f15b4426414b41d | london | between | partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3 |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:08.432513+00:00 | Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.1660 | 0.0000 | 0.1660 | 0x2102900cc23093c1e4b808a2a06839a0839702fcab9dc892b0ba8b7f905cc874 | london | between | partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3 |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:04.823408+00:00 | Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2035 | 0.0000 | 0.2035 | 0x3ff3d49ab287815f7677ab20f0324381de22517bd07a80eb524dce53ff433130 | london | below | partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3 |
| 2026-05-05T16:01:01.864498+00:00 | Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.4050 | 0.0203 | 0.3847 | 0xab6dd61c06b6d65fb4adcc6dcf9aad64ceb4bf8e694dbb78fd9e0f6128277403 | seattle | above | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:59.233716+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.3850 | 0.0599 | 0.3251 | 0x36b5ebcf6c6257695419e8cc3ee3328f0a1000b57870d471c7a650a3cf1b65eb | seattle | between | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:56.357831+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.4200 | 0.1436 | 0.2764 | 0xb7e8fe0b38f79ce74de2c119fde0a484cb70cfb34654e6aa8dec66ad11d4c6bf | seattle | between | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:51.863074+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in May? | skip | edge_too_small | 0.2550 | 0.2304 | -0.0246 | 0x19f982e07a64f4cc8da8208e268cf27e6a05b0d91b33a661207523376ba97e3c | seattle | between | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:49.064160+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in May? | skip | edge_too_small | 0.2450 | 0.2475 | 0.0025 | 0x317e13d28baae5a4e14229fbb147f04edcb190465b838c70962005cc296053b7 | seattle | between | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:46.461989+00:00 | Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2550 | 0.1780 | 0.0770 | 0x0210504acec9d16133a4bd02831872a40df36e7ef4b8dc40f7bc90416cbacca4 | seattle | between | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:43.613517+00:00 | Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.3000 | 0.1203 | 0.1797 | 0x4e65897edb647b5187f1ad5e948d8551f6440ddb3e068c7ca1671cf4b018b2e5 | seattle | below | partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:40.512015+00:00 | Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2600 | 0.0001 | 0.2599 | 0x74473fdfbd2e9e752c92e58f5c478b38f68c817bb4e7981fc3161839ae654f72 | new_york_city | above | partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:37.213733+00:00 | Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2250 | 0.0025 | 0.2225 | 0xb9d070cf25c7c888913cff0c862c0ad77af3f37a4c0e3cd24d22256541a2a016 | new_york_city | between | partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:32.884095+00:00 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.4150 | 0.0391 | 0.3759 | 0x35f91847f18be8874898e35467b58067ee753ab072665e828a2df190699ad9d4 | new_york_city | between | partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:25.062542+00:00 | Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.3350 | 0.2130 | 0.1220 | 0x404e1d11ae235ba626df25dced429b848d8cb741fa72b9635cd9c84e66973d00 | new_york_city | between | partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:20.556033+00:00 | Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? | open | edge_above_threshold | 0.2450 | 0.4053 | 0.1603 | 0x2909f77a47466405424669bb337223cd3e7c62acd2cbbc2c2ca9a977e7f9f51b | new_york_city | between | partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:16.456596+00:00 | Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May? | skip | edge_too_small | 0.3450 | 0.3401 | -0.0049 | 0x329c2eb2cd491487fa5ca8f5b6dbd5e125f73a825535ce55ff00a17699aa8d5c | new_york_city | below | partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7 |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:09.680672+00:00 | Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in April? | skip | edge_too_small | 0.0165 | 0.0000 | -0.0165 | 0x67533932f32371a17426ab9f1e0d5820535546b6705a4f4cf25090b51ee4cbe1 | london | between | past_month:7.5mm |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:09.670690+00:00 | Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in April? | skip | edge_too_small | 0.0130 | 0.0000 | -0.0130 | 0x212128f1da71fa9d86a10fb654a67b729b48ef96f1ab34af1fa1438199811c32 | london | between | past_month:7.5mm |
| 2026-05-05T16:00:09.654513+00:00 | Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April? | skip | edge_too_small | 0.9705 | 1.0000 | 0.0295 | 0x65034eb62e5812098462aa0452ae0fb54db99b55d1763ae2d64317af8aae5c6b | london | below | past_month:7.5mm |