Option Flow
Alpaca OPRA unusual call/put flow + LLM → Polymarket equity
deactivated
mode paper
uptime n/a
Retired 2026-06-10: 123 closed, -$177.62, NOT VIABLE
Last trade
2026-05-17T17:13:14.021196+00:00
Database
/home/trbck/wp/oddsoddy/strategies/option_flow/paper_run_20260507_083028.db
Tables
positions
Open
4
Closed
123
Win Rate
45.5%
Realized
$-177.62
Unrealized
$-22.85
Combined
$-200.48
Profit Factor
0.62
Max DD
$132.91
Open Positions (4 shown)
| entry_time | market_title | side | entry_price | peak_price | quantity | cost | pnl | status | expiry_time | market_id | exit_price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17T17:03:03.720697+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? | yes | 0.8565 | 0.8260 | 29.18855808523059 | $25.50 | open | 2026-05-19T16:00:00+00:00 | 0x4f90bb76e46ebff15642ec59e81b7b5d852840e1998fa5022036e63a0de0b8f5 | ||
| 2026-05-17T16:22:16.205919+00:00 | Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21? | yes | 0.8300 | 0.8350 | 30.12048192771084 | $25.50 | open | 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00 | 0x4fd7ecd43f2181f5aa40d29ce9c255c09ac4dbf02bd86488f72f87fcbae784d0 | ||
| 2026-05-17T15:00:47.804712+00:00 | Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs | yes | 0.5750 | 0.5650 | 43.47826086956521 | $25.50 | open | 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00 | 0x857d1d2c0ad739e3ff0dc62ffcb418474c0967880bf3983fe31251c4186e6e28 | ||
| 2026-05-16T07:36:39.153257+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? | yes | 0.8965 | 0.9230 | 27.886224205242613 | $25.50 | open | 2026-05-18T16:00:00+00:00 | 0x15c020bea3e3af7cc64276b4340cb5c598510f993511d8b87b345e1643ed6617 |
Recent Closed Positions (50 shown)
| exit_time | market_title | side | entry_price | exit_price | quantity | cost | pnl | status | market_id | entry_time | expiry_time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17T17:13:14.021196+00:00 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | yes | 0.6905 | 0.7355 | 36.20564808110065 | $25.50 | $+0.60 | closed | 0x85c0940b78ac4d7baa5e0dd671bfc5f0882c9356eac2d822b38af15c331a3ca9 | 2026-05-17T16:52:50.933756+00:00 | 2026-05-19T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-17T16:52:48.726243+00:00 | Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21? | yes | 0.2150 | 0.1600 | 116.27906976744187 | $25.50 | $-7.27 | closed | 0x087ff7b995cc5bb2314e216ff6bf322751523a6d3760af129c3561079d52b515 | 2026-05-17T16:22:16.208484+00:00 | 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-17T15:31:19.341326+00:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 17? | yes | 0.4000 | 0.3700 | 62.5 | $25.50 | $-2.84 | closed | 0xcc62ad0110adf0d349e37a71dd871738f3685d2561371358a784ba5ba5f34589 | 2026-05-17T14:40:18.392967+00:00 | 2026-05-18T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-17T14:09:44.494747+00:00 | Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? | yes | 0.6650 | 0.8950 | 37.59398496240601 | $25.50 | $+7.47 | closed | 0x74ef41e4b6c22da398d82066931e58bc598d463131f4dc648849747aa1723162 | 2026-05-16T06:25:23.604470+00:00 | 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-17T14:09:44.305080+00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | no | 0.6985 | 0.6025 | 35.79098067287044 | $25.50 | $-4.37 | closed | 0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f | 2026-05-16T12:31:56.346618+00:00 | 2026-05-19T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T14:03:56.005719+00:00 | Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 | yes | 0.8250 | 0.1950 | 30.3030303030303 | $25.50 | $-19.71 | closed | 0x98406b95c249481210bf26b97eecde6a47939eb272f7769ba3ce0ea6b2a4a131 | 2026-05-16T12:31:56.334037+00:00 | 2026-05-16T14:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T13:02:51.350667+00:00 | Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 | yes | 0.6050 | 0.4150 | 41.32231404958678 | $25.50 | $-8.69 | closed | 0x7bceba467c13865a7fd4889ddbe1834ddff9546890e8a2d280752511efd25802 | 2026-05-16T12:31:56.344232+00:00 | 2026-05-16T14:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T11:51:09.493451+00:00 | Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? | yes | 0.3650 | 0.3450 | 68.4931506849315 | $25.50 | $-2.34 | closed | 0x788e947df66879d94cd44b33d4aef5e0406b5f57192f3e42219263e1ac4e5e41 | 2026-05-16T09:59:13.872578+00:00 | 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T10:19:34.322225+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? | yes | 0.2150 | 0.1550 | 116.27906976744187 | $25.50 | $-7.84 | closed | 0x403576b6b425c06c4beed3fc654352583a76872c29c904cd4f0b98603a4fb8da | 2026-05-16T09:18:23.290882+00:00 | 2026-05-18T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T09:28:32.923058+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? | yes | 0.8850 | 0.7600 | 28.248587570621467 | $25.50 | $-4.46 | closed | 0xbb73f28bdb31f267f10ca5be90a17f6cecc620cc7dd5153414275d7309a2dcd0 | 2026-05-15T23:58:02.681014+00:00 | 2026-05-20T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T08:07:08.814840+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? | yes | 0.8020 | 0.7805 | 31.172069825436406 | $25.50 | $-1.66 | closed | 0xe9386423ce1d8bab57c0c9333461402da936cab802975fba17ec5f879ac485bb | 2026-05-16T07:36:39.150954+00:00 | 2026-05-16T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T06:55:54.990831+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? | yes | 0.7750 | 0.6550 | 32.25806451612903 | $25.50 | $-4.79 | closed | 0x66f99e1d9629b9f2d5942d74c26f729ffe9f633c0bf899c27abf0fb4f078c851 | 2026-05-16T04:02:34.712751+00:00 | 2026-05-18T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T06:45:44.048481+00:00 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | yes | 0.5950 | 0.5650 | 42.016806722689076 | $25.50 | $-2.24 | closed | 0x30d49ac0a4ce091a98c3950d5bb84063676596a889890300adf24b0e2c410e3a | 2026-05-14T06:35:39.809530+00:00 | 2026-05-16T14:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T06:35:33.478440+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? | yes | 0.8635 | 0.7915 | 28.951939779965254 | $25.50 | $-3.04 | closed | 0xc19836bc3b7c831fa51330717c3273aa7fd55743548653802f7ea1870f4685ce | 2026-05-15T17:37:20.259297+00:00 | 2026-05-17T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T06:15:10.328936+00:00 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16? | yes | 0.9080 | 0.9130 | 27.53303964757709 | $25.50 | $-0.87 | closed | 0xa2e9944c5f98d44259f573a5e0f71e5a1e6706bf0c6dd060db9371a881693dbb | 2026-05-15T23:58:02.685788+00:00 | 2026-05-16T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-16T03:32:00.197681+00:00 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17? | yes | 0.7750 | 0.8250 | 32.25806451612903 | $25.50 | $+0.58 | closed | 0xfa55deb1ec4c445eaf62668617aa9ace0766947ea6295a9605a62983ef4baccf | 2026-05-15T23:58:02.687919+00:00 | 2026-05-17T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T23:37:00.415491+00:00 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons | yes | 0.7650 | 0.2200 | 32.6797385620915 | $25.50 | $-18.45 | closed | 0x814eb822b61b23b0fcb6bcaee624a00b08667aa50fdf7440f9817543e3cd0e1d | 2026-05-15T10:34:02.413491+00:00 | 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T22:05:05.349768+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? | yes | 0.2250 | 0.1850 | 111.11111111111113 | $25.50 | $-5.36 | closed | 0x041af8e1a3188ee98a74cc11cf595b541121322e68b4fd83b01b839ae44267a3 | 2026-05-15T21:34:19.400965+00:00 | 2026-05-17T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T21:03:39.313338+00:00 | Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) | yes | 0.5350 | 0.4750 | 46.72897196261682 | $25.50 | $-3.75 | closed | 0xb880a18bac13e3cc430f29f9b235aee06a8922b90abfe102ea4d7f655b50c90e | 2026-05-15T03:14:21.793124+00:00 | 2026-05-15T23:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T21:03:39.089806+00:00 | Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? | yes | 0.8350 | 0.9000 | 29.940119760479043 | $25.50 | $+0.91 | closed | 0xebd29f93fbf1388873d8a34dc98592b1ca880f9aecb5118e80341cd7fa8838c1 | 2026-05-15T17:47:36.788598+00:00 | 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T17:06:34.491356+00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | no | 0.8550 | 0.9150 | 29.239766081871345 | $25.50 | $+0.72 | closed | 0x751a4d9606a37c86f62028c3e991db956cee064541f46c0fdca0ac678c5aecf2 | 2026-05-14T21:34:58.233248+00:00 | 2026-05-19T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T16:46:07.672177+00:00 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | no | 0.2395 | 0.1870 | 104.38413361169101 | $25.50 | $-6.37 | closed | 0x85c0940b78ac4d7baa5e0dd671bfc5f0882c9356eac2d822b38af15c331a3ca9 | 2026-05-15T16:25:41.811180+00:00 | 2026-05-19T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T15:52:34.636415+00:00 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15? | yes | 0.6225 | 0.4685 | 40.16064257028112 | $25.50 | $-7.06 | closed | 0xe92c65f0e50992ec80c9614899207d5ff9d643bd10d4b2f771e5bdee46e95646 | 2026-05-15T15:32:08.718775+00:00 | 2026-05-15T20:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T15:32:05.629604+00:00 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? | yes | 0.7450 | 0.8010 | 33.557046979865774 | $25.50 | $+0.84 | closed | 0x2b3f7a15096d6026fb4a1b974bf3aceebd831074a1d9d254fdf0c1f07dc0f3bc | 2026-05-15T14:09:57.469743+00:00 | 2026-05-19T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T13:39:09.600608+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? | yes | 0.8550 | 0.7200 | 29.239766081871345 | $25.50 | $-4.87 | closed | 0x0f0185533339591748a790e704515b7e1883ac26c45ff47d5ada90b0907a1c74 | 2026-05-15T04:15:41.790261+00:00 | 2026-05-20T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T10:23:44.444354+00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | no | 0.8150 | 0.7400 | 30.674846625766868 | $25.50 | $-3.25 | closed | 0x5d01d7c91999ac53ec34f1054aa1130b100c54378a50703563af9b5e58e2d9ad | 2026-05-14T21:34:58.235831+00:00 | 2026-05-19T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T04:15:37.665349+00:00 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | yes | 0.4655 | 0.4945 | 53.70569280343716 | $25.50 | $+0.53 | closed | 0xc6ddb19f848ac363330d0a690cfe6818d4c51e837161a41d42675eda27767ed0 | 2026-05-14T14:35:30.568598+00:00 | 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T03:03:58.371003+00:00 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15? | yes | 0.5250 | 0.5600 | 47.61904761904762 | $25.50 | $+0.63 | closed | 0xaecec6ce48cc93cd297c4d7fe22238ce02dc27c435b53e2b26b55cb8247204b7 | 2026-05-15T02:12:54.567647+00:00 | 2026-05-15T20:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-15T02:12:52.413522+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? | yes | 0.8250 | 0.7450 | 30.3030303030303 | $25.50 | $-3.38 | closed | 0x61318b0d1e11ce51fba3c523b6797cc1b5fbbd518da5ce3df44b8f56e38ea80b | 2026-05-14T23:39:28.705032+00:00 | 2026-05-16T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T22:48:08.679063+00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | no | 0.4530 | 0.3905 | 55.187637969094915 | $25.50 | $-4.38 | closed | 0x3790655cbef2a9bb342b4b5186c5d2575719cdbcf171265479ec907f0794a654 | 2026-05-14T21:34:58.231067+00:00 | 2026-05-15T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T20:23:05.182999+00:00 | Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 | no | 0.5850 | 0.4250 | 42.73504273504274 | $25.50 | $-7.70 | closed | 0x5187f7d899516c624293f5b23f36633b3e563e330e9788fc8ff93c5258206c98 | 2026-05-14T19:52:33.929913+00:00 | 2026-05-14T23:40:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T20:12:54.810779+00:00 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | yes | 0.5250 | 0.4750 | 47.61904761904762 | $25.50 | $-3.33 | closed | 0x7727587cd5f0e27309e78fe665535f6426b358892d33ae4be9fa39327c5ce9ef | 2026-05-14T06:25:23.976668+00:00 | 2026-05-15T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T19:21:42.588394+00:00 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14? | yes | 0.5300 | 0.6700 | 47.16981132075472 | $25.50 | $+5.47 | closed | 0xc89744dd1ea6899e6b642d76b5e65932ca24c422d8cd07436829ab5f47732978 | 2026-05-14T18:51:09.502866+00:00 | 2026-05-14T21:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T18:51:07.204724+00:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | yes | 0.8700 | 0.7850 | 28.735632183908045 | $25.50 | $-3.39 | closed | 0x4eaba08b8dd0104288dfbfde5b82bf6774a16f65c2bc790505cd619493f8a648 | 2026-05-14T18:20:31.875435+00:00 | 2026-05-14T20:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T18:10:06.735649+00:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? | yes | 0.2350 | 0.1615 | 106.38297872340426 | $25.50 | $-8.66 | closed | 0xd54687e3f6370f36130e9bd7d9e2c2a81d8832a2282400ec0012a68a92fdd765 | 2026-05-14T17:49:45.359269+00:00 | 2026-05-15T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T17:08:48.679892+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? | yes | 0.1205 | 0.1400 | 207.46887966804977 | $25.50 | $+2.96 | closed | 0x538ae470e91e6a5c6f0446ec508b5cafc5c107ed228a2bdcd3c8164be856400e | 2026-05-14T16:48:24.112243+00:00 | 2026-05-16T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T17:08:48.542173+00:00 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15? | yes | 0.2150 | 0.2500 | 116.27906976744187 | $25.50 | $+2.99 | closed | 0xe413580644d619902ddcdeee2f07fa88e67d317db69b5dfa5e486f162e0d1164 | 2026-05-14T16:48:24.115399+00:00 | 2026-05-15T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T15:47:10.927928+00:00 | Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21? | no | 0.2250 | 0.2400 | 111.11111111111114 | $25.50 | $+0.63 | closed | 0x4fd7ecd43f2181f5aa40d29ce9c255c09ac4dbf02bd86488f72f87fcbae784d0 | 2026-05-14T15:36:59.493832+00:00 | 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T15:26:42.791122+00:00 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? | yes | 0.1745 | 0.2055 | 143.26647564469914 | $25.50 | $+3.35 | closed | 0x9028563dc61d1403865225e04eac78b269723add69da34ee6eda1d6eb027635a | 2026-05-14T15:06:15.944541+00:00 | 2026-05-14T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T15:06:06.035931+00:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? | yes | 0.1450 | 0.2600 | 172.41379310344828 | $25.50 | $+18.43 | closed | 0xc6224deba7220976cb985938bb05690366bc7e9111ef0cea65573d652d587e80 | 2026-05-14T14:45:43.866506+00:00 | 2026-05-18T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T14:55:54.380157+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? | yes | 0.8650 | 0.9200 | 28.901734104046245 | $25.50 | $+0.56 | closed | 0x4f90bb76e46ebff15642ec59e81b7b5d852840e1998fa5022036e63a0de0b8f5 | 2026-05-14T05:34:18.228921+00:00 | 2026-05-19T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T14:25:10.421333+00:00 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14? | yes | 0.5200 | 0.6200 | 48.07692307692307 | $25.50 | $+3.71 | closed | 0x93110937fe33c9a71d7e9c1fbb1bfa09c6d837af048e6bd589e6232b4190ec7c | 2026-05-14T13:54:28.631778+00:00 | 2026-05-14T20:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T14:25:10.332405+00:00 | Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A | yes | 0.2150 | 0.8750 | 116.27906976744187 | $25.50 | $+74.21 | closed | 0x04f90d9780fd8cee0e01e0e764e71ca6401370cf6442a78007f297504e28c1ec | 2026-05-14T14:14:58.878126+00:00 | 2026-05-14T20:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T13:54:26.512374+00:00 | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? | yes | 0.1500 | 0.1300 | 166.66666666666669 | $25.50 | $-4.27 | closed | 0x1f3ee98ff629c0fc88c91c7a9597bcaa22bfeddcbc471c0419939e3a2f08fc1f | 2026-05-14T12:02:13.521063+00:00 | 2026-05-18T04:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T13:54:26.404291+00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | no | 0.4515 | 0.4100 | 55.370985603543744 | $25.50 | $-3.25 | closed | 0xc9f219a03f869a05d6329b7c38b0372fe93dda4308b29f76478fce7d44a1c32a | 2026-05-14T13:03:25.287306+00:00 | 2026-05-15T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T12:02:11.361147+00:00 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | no | 0.7550 | 0.8050 | 33.11258278145695 | $25.50 | $+0.62 | closed | 0x4fb6824612bcde2b81f7ba1d98ff6fdeda35c20abf9473aba6fa18ee5f3a27bd | 2026-05-14T06:56:03.951612+00:00 | 2026-05-19T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T11:41:50.604903+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? | yes | 0.8350 | 0.7850 | 29.940119760479043 | $25.50 | $-2.47 | closed | 0xd7666108cfa19a72fed949a9e53ebbf89048b065fb4ca1a4bb13033ae207a50a | 2026-05-14T05:34:18.225970+00:00 | 2026-05-15T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T06:14:59.776259+00:00 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? | yes | 0.6500 | 0.6900 | 38.46153846153846 | $25.50 | $+0.51 | closed | 0x9a72bb556617a07ac005dcd13e5fdc961318a0973ef7fde5ce590685feadcda0 | 2026-05-14T05:54:40.589347+00:00 | 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T05:54:38.998149+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? | yes | 0.1250 | 0.1350 | 200.0 | $25.50 | $+0.96 | closed | 0x798793c486024e5f02b5e968f183874d78f46ac66c42fb3a68e0ede6ef2f4eff | 2026-05-14T05:34:18.222645+00:00 | 2026-05-15T16:00:00+00:00 |
| 2026-05-14T05:54:38.765038+00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? | yes | 0.4250 | 0.4650 | 58.8235294117647 | $25.50 | $+1.31 | closed | 0x8c59c41a5147830a3bbe2ea48c6b06707a88d3cf7fd05db2cc4219f011be08d0 | 2026-05-14T05:34:18.232151+00:00 | 2026-05-15T16:00:00+00:00 |
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