0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
⚠️ SUSPECT auto-upgraded from politics_specialist after evaluation
Lifetime buys: $334,743 · Topical: $225,561 (67%) · Big buys (≥$5k): 6 · Largest: $9,990 · Fingerprint: topical_heavy (realized WR unknown — settled-trade calc pending) · Added 05-23 20:42 · Last seen 07-09 18:56
| Total recent trades | 500 | Distinct markets | 175 |
| Total buys | $334,743 | Largest single buy | $9,990 |
| Topical (war/politics) | $225,561 | Topical share | 67% |
| Big buys (≥$5k) | 6 | Fingerprint | topical_heavy |
| Time | Side @ entry | Size | Market | +30m | +1h | +4h | +24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 18:56 | YES @ $0.170 | $595 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | -0.5% $0.165 | -0.5% $0.165 | -1.5% $0.155 | -5.5% $0.115 |
| 07-08 21:20 | YES @ $0.080 | $30 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 |
| 07-08 21:20 | YES @ $0.080 | $38 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 |
| 07-08 20:59 | YES @ $0.034 | $953 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | +0.2% $0.035 | +0.2% $0.035 | -0.2% $0.032 | +0.3% $0.037 |
| 07-08 19:04 | NO @ $0.552 | $552 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | +0.3% $0.555 | -1.2% $0.540 | -2.2% $0.530 | -2.7% $0.525 |
| 07-08 18:53 | NO @ $0.589 | $589 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | -5.4% $0.535 | -5.4% $0.535 | -5.4% $0.535 | -5.4% $0.535 |
| 07-08 15:40 | YES @ $0.080 | $177 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 | +0.5% $0.085 |
| 07-08 12:26 | NO @ $0.710 | $280 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | 0.0% $0.710 | -5.0% $0.660 | -4.5% $0.665 | -5.5% $0.655 |
| 07-07 19:08 | NO @ $0.997 | $930 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | -1.2% $0.985 | -1.2% $0.985 | -1.2% $0.985 | — |
| 07-07 15:41 | YES @ $0.070 | $140 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | +2.0% $0.090 | +2.0% $0.090 | +2.0% $0.090 | +2.0% $0.090 |
| 07-07 11:12 | NO @ $0.900 | $2,700 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | -0.5% $0.895 | -0.5% $0.895 | -0.5% $0.895 | -0.5% $0.895 |
| 07-05 09:42 | NO @ $0.530 | $265 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | +1.0% $0.540 | +1.5% $0.545 | +8.0% $0.610 | +10.5% $0.635 |
| 07-04 14:32 | NO @ $0.622 | $622 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | -1.2% $0.610 | -1.2% $0.610 | -7.7% $0.545 | -1.7% $0.605 |
| 07-04 00:59 | NO @ $0.976 | $167 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | +0.1% $0.977 | +0.1% $0.977 | +0.7% $0.983 | -3.5% $0.942 |
| 07-03 20:45 | NO @ $0.700 | $1,400 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | +4.0% $0.740 | +1.0% $0.710 | +11.0% $0.810 | -12.0% $0.580 |
| 07-03 20:14 | NO @ $0.790 | $2,370 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | -0.5% $0.785 | -0.5% $0.785 | +0.5% $0.795 | +3.5% $0.825 |
| 07-03 19:01 | NO @ $0.720 | $720 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | -2.5% $0.695 | -1.0% $0.710 | +9.0% $0.810 | -15.5% $0.565 |
| 07-03 18:30 | YES @ $0.241 | $286 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -15.0% $0.091 | +6.1% $0.302 | -24.1% $0.001 | -24.1% $0.001 |
| 07-03 18:25 | NO @ $0.730 | $730 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | -2.5% $0.705 | -4.5% $0.685 | +8.0% $0.810 | -18.5% $0.545 |
| 07-03 18:25 | NO @ $0.738 | $2,215 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | -3.4% $0.705 | -5.3% $0.685 | +7.2% $0.810 | -19.4% $0.545 |
| 07-03 18:25 | YES @ $0.180 | $180 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -2.0% $0.160 | +0.1% $0.180 | -17.9% $0.001 | -17.8% $0.002 |
| 07-03 18:25 | YES @ $0.200 | $200 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -10.8% $0.091 | +10.2% $0.302 | -19.9% $0.001 | -19.9% $0.002 |
| 07-03 11:41 | NO @ $0.900 | $284 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | +0.5% $0.905 | -1.0% $0.890 | -0.5% $0.895 | -0.5% $0.895 |
| 07-02 12:40 | NO @ $0.780 | $878 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | +3.0% $0.810 | +3.0% $0.810 | +11.5% $0.895 | +11.5% $0.895 |
| 07-02 12:40 | NO @ $0.670 | $188 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | +14.0% $0.810 | +14.0% $0.810 | +22.5% $0.895 | +22.5% $0.895 |
| 07-02 11:06 | NO @ $0.990 | $2,970 | Israel closes its airspace by July 7? | -0.3% $0.987 | -0.3% $0.987 | +0.4% $0.994 | +0.4% $0.994 |
| 07-02 07:11 | NO @ $0.900 | $22 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | +0.5% $0.905 | +1.5% $0.915 | +8.0% $0.980 | +8.0% $0.980 |
| 07-01 17:42 | YES @ $0.050 | $50 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | +0.5% $0.055 | +0.5% $0.055 | -5.0% $0.001 | -5.0% $0.001 |
| 07-01 17:42 | YES @ $0.050 | $50 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | +0.5% $0.055 | +1.5% $0.065 | -5.0% $0.001 | -5.0% $0.001 |
| 07-01 17:37 | NO @ $0.807 | $1,208 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | +2.3% $0.830 | +2.8% $0.835 | +17.2% $0.980 | +17.2% $0.980 |
| 07-01 17:06 | NO @ $0.800 | $189 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | -1.0% $0.790 | +3.0% $0.830 | +17.9% $0.980 | +17.9% $0.980 |
| 07-01 17:01 | NO @ $0.810 | $166 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | 0.0% $0.810 | -2.5% $0.785 | +13.5% $0.945 | +13.5% $0.945 |
| 07-01 16:50 | NO @ $0.900 | $2,700 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | -9.5% $0.805 | -9.5% $0.805 | +4.5% $0.945 | +4.5% $0.945 |
| 07-01 16:50 | NO @ $0.900 | $1,800 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | -9.5% $0.805 | — | — | — |
| Opened | Market | Entry | Size | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 02:56 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | NO @ $0.989 | $33 | $-0.13 | closed_time |
| 05-24 09:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | YES @ $0.210 | $40 | $+5.71 | closed_win |