0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
⚠️ SUSPECT auto-upgraded from politics_specialist after evaluation
Lifetime buys: $920,651 · Topical: $509,114 (55%) · Big buys (≥$5k): 48 · Largest: $69,230 · Fingerprint: topical_mixed (realized WR unknown — settled-trade calc pending) · Added 05-19 17:13 · Last seen 07-10 14:57
| Total recent trades | 500 | Distinct markets | 80 |
| Total buys | $920,651 | Largest single buy | $69,230 |
| Topical (war/politics) | $509,114 | Topical share | 55% |
| Big buys (≥$5k) | 48 | Fingerprint | topical_mixed |
| Time | Side @ entry | Size | Market | +30m | +1h | +4h | +24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 14:57 | NO @ $0.790 | $932 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +0.5% $0.795 | 0.0% $0.790 | 0.0% $0.790 | — |
| 07-10 14:57 | NO @ $0.805 | $330 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | -1.0% $0.795 | -1.5% $0.790 | -1.5% $0.790 | — |
| 07-10 14:31 | NO @ $0.875 | $5,348 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | -1.0% $0.865 | -0.8% $0.867 | +1.3% $0.887 | — |
| 07-10 14:16 | NO @ $0.884 | $3,641 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | -2.4% $0.860 | -1.9% $0.865 | -0.5% $0.879 | — |
| 07-10 14:00 | NO @ $0.878 | $1,621 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | -0.9% $0.869 | -1.3% $0.865 | +0.9% $0.886 | — |
| 07-10 13:40 | NO @ $0.840 | $796 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +0.5% $0.845 | -1.5% $0.825 | -3.0% $0.810 | — |
| 07-10 13:03 | NO @ $0.840 | $612 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | -0.5% $0.835 | 0.0% $0.840 | -7.5% $0.765 | — |
| 07-10 12:32 | NO @ $0.840 | $4,785 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +0.5% $0.845 | -0.5% $0.835 | -7.5% $0.765 | — |
| 07-09 19:22 | NO @ $0.730 | $584 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +1.5% $0.745 | +1.5% $0.745 | +2.5% $0.755 | +5.5% $0.785 |
| 07-09 18:51 | NO @ $0.699 | $5,898 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +2.6% $0.725 | +4.6% $0.745 | +4.6% $0.745 | +9.1% $0.790 |
| 07-09 12:05 | YES @ $0.172 | $1,048 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | -2.2% $0.150 | -3.1% $0.141 | -2.4% $0.148 | -5.5% $0.117 |
| 07-08 21:20 | NO @ $0.490 | $907 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | -0.5% $0.485 | -1.0% $0.480 | +4.0% $0.530 | -3.0% $0.460 |
| 07-08 21:20 | NO @ $0.497 | $772 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | -1.1% $0.485 | -2.1% $0.475 | +3.4% $0.530 | -3.6% $0.460 |
| 07-08 21:04 | YES @ $0.270 | $199 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | -1.5% $0.255 | -3.5% $0.235 | -8.5% $0.185 | -10.5% $0.165 |
| 07-08 21:04 | YES @ $0.280 | $495 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | -2.5% $0.255 | -4.5% $0.235 | -9.5% $0.185 | -11.5% $0.165 |
| 07-08 20:33 | YES @ $0.280 | $72 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | +3.5% $0.315 | +3.5% $0.315 | -2.5% $0.255 | -8.5% $0.195 |
| 07-08 20:27 | YES @ $0.249 | $367 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | +2.6% $0.275 | +2.6% $0.275 | -7.4% $0.175 | -8.4% $0.165 |
| 07-08 20:17 | YES @ $0.280 | $2,885 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | +4.5% $0.325 | +3.5% $0.315 | -2.5% $0.255 | -7.0% $0.210 |
| 07-08 19:56 | NO @ $0.800 | $680 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | +4.5% $0.845 | +4.0% $0.840 | +1.5% $0.815 | +8.5% $0.885 |
| 07-08 19:51 | YES @ $0.230 | $237 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | -0.5% $0.225 | +2.5% $0.255 | -2.5% $0.205 | -6.5% $0.165 |
| 07-08 19:46 | YES @ $0.250 | $325 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | -0.5% $0.245 | +6.5% $0.315 | +1.5% $0.265 | -4.5% $0.205 |
| 07-08 18:48 | NO @ $0.760 | $1,264 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +0.5% $0.765 | +1.5% $0.775 | +1.5% $0.775 | -8.5% $0.675 |
| 07-08 16:53 | NO @ $0.750 | $4,223 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +1.6% $0.765 | +2.0% $0.770 | +1.6% $0.765 | +0.1% $0.750 |
| 07-08 16:48 | NO @ $0.720 | $588 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | +4.5% $0.765 | +4.5% $0.765 | +4.5% $0.765 | +3.5% $0.755 |
| 07-08 15:14 | NO @ $0.989 | $7,316 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | +0.1% $0.990 | +0.1% $0.990 | +0.1% $0.990 | +0.0% $0.989 |
| 07-07 19:39 | NO @ $0.560 | $3,100 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | +1.0% $0.570 | +1.5% $0.575 | +1.5% $0.575 | +7.5% $0.635 |
| 07-05 12:58 | YES @ $0.419 | $472 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | -1.4% $0.405 | -2.4% $0.395 | -5.9% $0.360 | -4.9% $0.370 |
| 07-04 16:45 | YES @ $0.022 | $109 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | +0.1% $0.022 | -0.3% $0.018 | -0.1% $0.021 | +1.1% $0.033 |
| 07-04 16:45 | YES @ $0.023 | $46 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | -0.1% $0.022 | -0.5% $0.018 | -0.1% $0.021 | +0.9% $0.033 |
| 07-03 19:43 | NO @ $0.820 | $4,892 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -7.3% $0.747 | +1.1% $0.831 | +17.9% $1.000 | +17.9% $1.000 |
| 07-03 19:27 | YES @ $0.323 | $530 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -10.8% $0.215 | -15.8% $0.165 | -32.2% $0.001 | -32.1% $0.002 |
| 07-03 19:22 | YES @ $0.187 | $889 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | +0.5% $0.192 | -2.5% $0.162 | -18.6% $0.001 | -18.6% $0.002 |
| 07-03 19:22 | YES @ $0.212 | $636 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -2.0% $0.192 | -5.0% $0.162 | -21.1% $0.001 | -21.0% $0.002 |
| 07-03 19:22 | YES @ $0.226 | $226 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | -3.4% $0.192 | -6.4% $0.162 | -22.6% $0.001 | -22.4% $0.002 |
| 07-03 17:38 | YES @ $0.620 | $3,836 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | +0.5% $0.625 | +0.5% $0.625 | — | — |
| Opened | Market | Entry | Size | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 18:48 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | NO @ $0.695 | $33 | $+0.48 | closed_time |
| 06-25 00:09 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | NO @ $0.987 | $33 | $-0.15 | closed_time |
| 06-23 17:31 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | NO @ $0.977 | $33 | $+0.02 | closed_time |
| 06-13 21:01 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | NO @ $0.738 | $33 | $+5.66 | closed_win |
| 06-11 17:44 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | NO @ $0.780 | $36 | $-3.42 | closed_loss |
| 06-11 13:01 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | NO @ $0.750 | $36 | $+3.55 | closed_time |
| 06-01 18:00 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | NO @ $0.370 | $33 | $+4.05 | closed_win |
| 05-29 17:43 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | YES @ $0.760 | $40 | $-17.89 | closed_loss |
| 05-29 16:45 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | YES @ $0.780 | $40 | $-5.64 | closed_loss |
| 05-29 16:29 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | YES @ $0.750 | $40 | $-2.13 | closed_loss |
| 05-23 20:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | YES @ $0.490 | $40 | $-3.27 | closed_loss |