Weather Paper Bot

2026-05-22 18:22:07 UTC — refreshes every 60s

Bankroll
$1,000
Deployed
$30.60
Available
$842.30
Realized P&L
$-127.10
Open / Closed
1 / 7
Win Rate
14%

Forecasting

Predictions
8
Resolved
7
Hit Rate
14%
Brier (Model)
0.1993
Brier (Market)
0.3115
YES / NO
1 / 7

Performance

Win / Loss
1 / 6
Avg P&L
$-18.16
Best Trade
$43.03
Worst Trade
$-30.60
Total Invested
$243.90
Spread Samples
3587

P&L Over Time

P&L by Category

CategoryTradesWin RateP&L
Temperature: High714% $-127.10

Open Positions (1)

MarketSideEntryModel PEdgeCostOpenedResolves
Temperature: High (1)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22? NO 0.540 0.735 +0.195 $30.60 May 21 12:45 May 22

P&L by City

CityTradesWin RateP&L
Miami333% $-17.98
Atlanta20% $-48.21
Seattle20% $-60.90

Market Evaluations — Last 24h (300 evaluated: 0 bet, 270 dismissed, 30 skipped)

MarketSideModel PMkt PEdgeResolvesEvaluatedStatusResult
Dismissed (44)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 24? YES 0.324 0.015 +0.309 May 24 May 22 12:44 YES price out of range (0.01)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 24? YES 0.035 0.007 +0.028 May 24 May 22 12:44 Edge too small (0.028 < 0.180)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 24? YES 0.067 0.008 +0.059 May 24 May 22 12:44 Edge too small (0.059 < 0.180)
Cape Town: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 22
Kuala Lumpur: 2 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 22
London: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 24
Manila: 3 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 22
Paris: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 24
Seoul: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 24
Skipped (no data) (6)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 24? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 24 May 22 12:44 Insufficient data sources
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 24? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 24 May 22 12:44 Insufficient data sources
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 24 — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 24 May 22 12:44 Insufficient data sources
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on May 2 — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 22 May 22 12:44 Insufficient data sources
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on Ma — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 22 May 22 12:44 Insufficient data sources
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 22 May 22 12:44 Insufficient data sources

Whale Activity on Weather Markets (38)

SideSizeZPriceFlagsWalletDetected
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or (1)
BUY $573 14.7 0.980 0x249ec6b955 May 21 21:32
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between (3)
BUY $844 6.2 0.998 0xeb1d1cd1b3 May 05 18:01
BUY $997 7.4 0.997 0xeb1d1cd1b3 May 05 17:55
BUY $815 6.9 0.990 0xece5634ace May 05 14:06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or h (12)
BUY $1,297 6.1 0.995 0x09a85cfe4d May 12 13:34
BUY $809 3.7 0.996 0x0b63a2c90a May 12 13:13
BUY $1,677 8.0 0.995 0x09a85cfe4d May 12 13:10
BUY $828 3.8 0.995 0xe3c3c6d4e9 May 12 12:09
BUY $1,363 6.4 0.995 0x5a7f0a60c1 May 12 11:18
BUY $999 4.6 0.995 0xe3c3c6d4e9 May 12 10:24
BUY $1,103 5.2 0.998 0x69db2bf803 May 12 09:20
BUY $998 4.6 0.998 0x42786cad1a May 12 09:15
BUY $2,300 11.1 0.999 0x0e06348f65 May 12 08:17
BUY $783 3.6 0.990 0x116db6298a May 12 08:13
BUY $1,014 4.7 0.990 0x116db6298a May 12 08:08
SELL $675 3.0 0.951 CNTR 0x33118aa4bd May 12 08:02
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C o (2)
BUY $953 3.6 0.998 0x880d2b8f3d May 19 21:04
BUY $1,090 4.2 0.998 0x880d2b8f3d May 19 21:02
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or h (2)
BUY $532 4.1 0.990 0xece5634ace May 12 07:26
BUY $532 4.4 0.990 0xece5634ace May 12 07:26
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76 (3)
SELL $840 9.8 0.952 CNTR 0xbb71bb42ab May 06 15:01
SELL $840 10.9 0.952 CNTR 0xbb71bb42ab May 06 15:01
SELL $840 10.9 0.952 CNTR 0xbb71bb42ab May 06 15:01
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or hi (1)
BUY $1,143 9.8 0.998 0xf8d241504d May 11 07:46
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or hi (1)
BUY $2,029 2.6 0.998 0xe192da7927 May 13 02:06
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or hi (1)
BUY $3,029 3.0 0.998 0xef57444bd5 May 07 15:53
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C or hig (4)
BUY $542 6.9 0.980 0x421f220308 May 12 04:14
BUY $542 6.4 0.980 0x421f220308 May 12 04:14
BUY $542 6.6 0.980 0x421f220308 May 12 04:14
BUY $542 6.1 0.980 0x421f220308 May 12 04:14

Recent Closed Positions

MarketSideEntryExitP&LClosedResolved
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21? NO 0.380 0.000 $-30.60 May 22 00:43 May 21
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? NO 0.480 0.003 $-30.42 May 11 23:01 May 11
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9? NO 0.470 0.000 $-30.60 May 10 12:24 May 09
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8? NO 0.410 0.000 $-30.60 May 09 06:24 May 08
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6? YES 0.515 0.220 $-17.61 May 06 09:18 May 06
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 5? NO 0.405 1.000 $43.03 May 05 21:15 May 05
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3? NO 0.385 0.000 $-30.30 May 04 02:21 May 03

Recent Bets — Reasoning

BetSideModel PMkt PEdgeResultReasoning
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or high NO 0.265 0.480 -0.215 OPEN climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 56.6% in above 66.0F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 22 | nwp: GFS N(59.78, 3.00) CDF(above 66.0°F)=0.0694; ECMWF N(61.41, 3.00) CDF(above 66.0°F)=0.1373; weighted=0.0999 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.09 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=+0.5°F | commercial: openweathermap forecast=62.5F; N(62.5, 3.5) CDF(above 66.0F)=0.1607; 1d horizon | mos: MOS KORD forecast=62.0F; N(62.0, 2.5) CDF(above 66.0F)=0.0548; 1d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.1°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=56
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or high NO 0.300 0.640 -0.340 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 4.2% in above 74.0F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 21 | nwp: GFS N(74.82, 3.00) CDF(above 74.0°F)=0.5776; ECMWF N(69.78, 3.00) CDF(above 74.0°F)=0.1573; weighted=0.3884 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.80 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-1.5°F | commercial: openweathermap forecast=72.0F; N(72.0, 3.5) CDF(above 74.0F)=0.2887; 1d horizon | mos: MOS KSEA forecast=68.0F; N(68.0, 2.5) CDF(above 74.0F)=0.0082; 1d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.8°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=79
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91° NO 0.217 0.540 -0.323 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 0.9% in [90.0, 92.0)F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 11 | nwp: GFS N(86.30, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.0957; ECMWF N(86.27, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.0954; weighted=0.0956 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=0.83 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-0.5°F | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=84.0F; N(84.0, 4.5) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.0546; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KMIA forecast=88.0F; N(88.0, 3.2) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.1599; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=0.8°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=62
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91° NO 0.240 0.550 -0.310 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 1.0% in [90.0, 92.0)F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 09 | nwp: GFS N(86.40, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.0968; ECMWF N(88.11, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.1136; weighted=0.1044 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.31 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-0.5°F | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=83.0F; N(83.0, 4.5) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.0384; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KMIA forecast=90.0F; N(90.0, 3.2) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.2308; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=1.3°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=64
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-7 NO 0.290 0.610 -0.320 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 9.1% in [72.0, 74.0)F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 08 | nwp: GFS N(74.61, 4.50) CDF([72.0, 74.0)°F)=0.1221; ECMWF N(72.97, 4.50) CDF([72.0, 74.0)°F)=0.1261; weighted=0.1239 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.02 seasonal_mult=1.4 | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=72.0F; N(72.0, 4.5) CDF([72.0, 74.0)F)=0.1697; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KATL forecast=73.0F; N(73.0, 3.2) CDF([72.0, 74.0)F)=0.2417; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.0°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=73
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or belo YES 0.694 0.510 +0.184 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 100.0% in below 79.0F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 06 | nwp: GFS N(79.26, 3.00) CDF(below 79.0°F)=0.4757; ECMWF N(78.56, 3.00) CDF(below 79.0°F)=0.5422; weighted=0.5056 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.10 seasonal_mult=1.4 | commercial: openweathermap forecast=79.6F; N(79.6, 3.5) CDF(below 79.0F)=0.4286; 1d horizon | mos: MOS KATL forecast=63.0F; N(63.0, 2.5) CDF(below 79.0F)=0.9990; 1d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.1°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.30, qty=58
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87° NO 0.275 0.600 -0.325 WIN climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 8.6% in [86.0, 88.0)F from 460 samples +/-5d of May 05 | nwp: GFS N(83.80, 4.50) CDF([86.0, 88.0)°F)=0.1109; ECMWF N(81.61, 4.50) CDF([86.0, 88.0)°F)=0.0877; weighted=0.1005 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.84 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-0.5°F | commercial: openweathermap forecast=84.0F; N(84.0, 4.5) CDF([86.0, 88.0)F)=0.1401; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KMIA forecast=86.0F; N(86.0, 3.2) CDF([86.0, 88.0)F)=0.2308; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=1.8°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.30, qty=74
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or high NO 0.331 0.620 -0.289 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 1.3% in above 80.0F from 368 samples +/-5d of May 03 | nwp: GFS N(78.54, 3.00) CDF(above 80.0°F)=0.3642; ECMWF N(74.09, 3.00) CDF(above 80.0°F)=0.0798; weighted=0.2362 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.39 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-1.5°F | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=76.6F; N(76.6, 3.5) CDF(above 80.0F)=0.1634; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KSEA forecast=79.0F; N(79.0, 2.5) CDF(above 80.0F)=0.3446; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.4°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.30, qty=78

DB: paper_run_20260428_080828.db