Weather Paper Bot

2026-07-10 22:57:35 UTC — refreshes every 60s

Bankroll
$1,000
Deployed
$0.00
Available
$804.95
Realized P&L
$-195.05
Open / Closed
0 / 11
Win Rate
18%

Forecasting

Predictions
11
Resolved
11
Hit Rate
18%
Brier (Model)
0.2511
Brier (Market)
0.3090
YES / NO
2 / 9

Performance

Win / Loss
2 / 9
Avg P&L
$-17.73
Best Trade
$43.03
Worst Trade
$-30.60
Total Invested
$335.70
Spread Samples
4144

P&L Over Time

P&L by Category

CategoryTradesWin RateP&L
Temperature: High1118% $-195.05

Open Positions (0)

MarketSideEntryModel PEdgeCostOpenedResolves
No open positions

P&L by City

CityTradesWin RateP&L
Chicago250% $-6.76
Miami333% $-17.98
London10% $-30.60
Toronto10% $-30.60
Atlanta20% $-48.21
Seattle20% $-60.90

Market Evaluations — Last 24h (0 evaluated: 0 bet, 0 dismissed, 0 skipped)

MarketSideModel PMkt PEdgeResolvesEvaluatedStatusResult
Dismissed (47)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 31 YES 0.009 0.005 +0.004 May 31 May 31 06:43 Edge too small (0.004 < 0.180)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F o — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'New York' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on May 3 — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 30 — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Jeddah' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Panama City' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Panama City' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Panama City' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Panama City' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Panama City' not in whitelist
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 30? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 30 May 31 06:43 city 'Panama City' not in whitelist
London: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 31
Paris: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed May 31
Skipped (no data) (3)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on May 31? — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 31 May 31 06:43 Insufficient data sources
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 3 — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 31 May 31 06:43 Insufficient data sources
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 31 — 0.000 0.000 +0.000 May 31 May 31 06:43 Insufficient data sources

Whale Activity on Weather Markets (55)

SideSizeZPriceFlagsWalletDetected
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or (1)
BUY $573 14.7 0.980 0x249ec6b955 May 21 21:32
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C (8)
BUY $2,857 15.9 0.999 CNTR 0x0d2ea4f8d0 May 29 15:42
BUY $774 4.2 0.999 CNTR 0x758cca7fee May 29 13:36
SELL $1,750 14.5 0.999 0x74982da053 May 29 08:37
SELL $1,750 9.7 0.999 0x74982da053 May 29 08:37
BUY $999 8.2 0.999 CNTR 0x1ea5c72fca May 29 06:26
BUY $999 5.4 0.999 CNTR 0x1ea5c72fca May 29 06:26
BUY $1,350 11.2 0.999 CNTR 0x74982da053 May 29 06:19
BUY $1,350 7.4 0.999 CNTR 0x74982da053 May 29 06:19
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or h (9)
BUY $1,297 6.1 0.995 0x09a85cfe4d May 12 13:34
BUY $809 3.7 0.996 0x0b63a2c90a May 12 13:13
BUY $1,677 8.0 0.995 0x09a85cfe4d May 12 13:10
BUY $828 3.8 0.995 0xe3c3c6d4e9 May 12 12:09
BUY $1,363 6.4 0.995 0x5a7f0a60c1 May 12 11:18
BUY $999 4.6 0.995 0xe3c3c6d4e9 May 12 10:24
BUY $1,103 5.2 0.998 0x69db2bf803 May 12 09:20
BUY $998 4.6 0.998 0x42786cad1a May 12 09:15
BUY $2,300 11.1 0.999 0x0e06348f65 May 12 08:17
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or h (5)
BUY $2,997 17.2 0.999 0x09a85cfe4d May 27 03:44
BUY $1,495 8.5 0.998 0x937bcac3a8 May 27 03:00
BUY $1,092 6.2 0.998 0x937bcac3a8 May 27 03:00
BUY $1,027 5.8 0.990 0x658ba0b540 May 27 02:57
BUY $1,069 6.0 0.990 0x5a7f0a60c1 May 27 02:57
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C o (2)
BUY $953 3.6 0.998 0x880d2b8f3d May 19 21:04
BUY $1,090 4.2 0.998 0x880d2b8f3d May 19 21:02
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or h (1)
BUY $1,220 6.9 0.998 0x57dedd6259 May 27 22:48
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or hi (1)
BUY $2,029 2.6 0.998 0xe192da7927 May 13 02:06
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or hi (3)
BUY $10,956 4.4 0.999 0x57dedd6259 May 23 05:52
BUY $11,951 4.8 0.999 0x57dedd6259 May 23 03:16
BUY $851 3.0 0.997 0x16178c379c May 22 10:13

Recent Closed Positions

MarketSideEntryExitP&LClosedResolved
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? NO 0.490 0.000 $-30.60 May 30 18:43 May 29
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? NO 0.500 0.000 $-30.60 May 30 18:43 May 29
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 27? YES 0.650 0.000 $-30.60 May 28 12:43 May 27
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22? NO 0.540 1.000 $23.84 May 23 06:43 May 22
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21? NO 0.380 0.000 $-30.60 May 22 00:43 May 21
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? NO 0.480 0.003 $-30.42 May 11 23:01 May 11
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9? NO 0.470 0.000 $-30.60 May 10 12:24 May 09
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8? NO 0.410 0.000 $-30.60 May 09 06:24 May 08
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6? YES 0.515 0.220 $-17.61 May 06 09:18 May 06
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 5? NO 0.405 1.000 $43.03 May 05 21:15 May 05
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3? NO 0.385 0.000 $-30.30 May 04 02:21 May 03

Recent Bets — Reasoning

BetSideModel PMkt PEdgeResultReasoning
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or high NO 0.267 0.530 -0.263 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 5.2% in above 84.0F from 368 samples +/-5d of May 29 | nwp: GFS N(78.95, 3.00) CDF(above 84.0°F)=0.1144; ECMWF N(78.62, 3.00) CDF(above 84.0°F)=0.1002; weighted=0.1080 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.16 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=+0.5°F | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=74.2F; N(74.2, 3.5) CDF(above 84.0F)=0.0026; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KORD forecast=83.0F; N(83.0, 2.5) CDF(above 84.0F)=0.3446; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=1.2°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=61
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or high NO 0.307 0.520 -0.213 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 6.0% in above 77.0F from 368 samples +/-5d of May 29 | nwp: GFS N(75.10, 3.00) CDF(above 77.0°F)=0.3253; ECMWF N(75.78, 3.00) CDF(above 77.0°F)=0.3860; weighted=0.3526 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.18 seasonal_mult=1.4 | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=73.9F; N(73.9, 3.5) CDF(above 77.0F)=0.1882; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=1.2°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=60
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher YES 0.813 0.630 +0.183 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 60.7% in above 62.6F from 460 samples +/-5d of May 27 | nwp: GFS N(76.32, 3.00) CDF(above 62.6°F)=0.9995; ECMWF N(81.33, 3.00) CDF(above 62.6°F)=1.0000; weighted=0.9990 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=3.34 seasonal_mult=1.4 | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=78.8F; N(78.8, 3.5) CDF(above 62.6F)=0.9990; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=3.3°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=46
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or high NO 0.265 0.480 -0.215 WIN climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 56.6% in above 66.0F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 22 | nwp: GFS N(59.78, 3.00) CDF(above 66.0°F)=0.0694; ECMWF N(61.41, 3.00) CDF(above 66.0°F)=0.1373; weighted=0.0999 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.09 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=+0.5°F | commercial: openweathermap forecast=62.5F; N(62.5, 3.5) CDF(above 66.0F)=0.1607; 1d horizon | mos: MOS KORD forecast=62.0F; N(62.0, 2.5) CDF(above 66.0F)=0.0548; 1d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.1°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=56
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or high NO 0.300 0.640 -0.340 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 4.2% in above 74.0F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 21 | nwp: GFS N(74.82, 3.00) CDF(above 74.0°F)=0.5776; ECMWF N(69.78, 3.00) CDF(above 74.0°F)=0.1573; weighted=0.3884 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.80 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-1.5°F | commercial: openweathermap forecast=72.0F; N(72.0, 3.5) CDF(above 74.0F)=0.2887; 1d horizon | mos: MOS KSEA forecast=68.0F; N(68.0, 2.5) CDF(above 74.0F)=0.0082; 1d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.8°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=79
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91° NO 0.217 0.540 -0.323 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 0.9% in [90.0, 92.0)F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 11 | nwp: GFS N(86.30, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.0957; ECMWF N(86.27, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.0954; weighted=0.0956 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=0.83 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-0.5°F | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=84.0F; N(84.0, 4.5) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.0546; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KMIA forecast=88.0F; N(88.0, 3.2) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.1599; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=0.8°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=62
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91° NO 0.240 0.550 -0.310 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 1.0% in [90.0, 92.0)F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 09 | nwp: GFS N(86.40, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.0968; ECMWF N(88.11, 4.50) CDF([90.0, 92.0)°F)=0.1136; weighted=0.1044 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.31 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-0.5°F | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=83.0F; N(83.0, 4.5) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.0384; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KMIA forecast=90.0F; N(90.0, 3.2) CDF([90.0, 92.0)F)=0.2308; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=1.3°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=64
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-7 NO 0.290 0.610 -0.320 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 9.1% in [72.0, 74.0)F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 08 | nwp: GFS N(74.61, 4.50) CDF([72.0, 74.0)°F)=0.1221; ECMWF N(72.97, 4.50) CDF([72.0, 74.0)°F)=0.1261; weighted=0.1239 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.02 seasonal_mult=1.4 | commercial: tomorrow_io forecast=72.0F; N(72.0, 4.5) CDF([72.0, 74.0)F)=0.1697; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KATL forecast=73.0F; N(73.0, 3.2) CDF([72.0, 74.0)F)=0.2417; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.0°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.60, qty=73
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or belo YES 0.694 0.510 +0.184 LOSS climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 100.0% in below 79.0F from 506 samples +/-5d of May 06 | nwp: GFS N(79.26, 3.00) CDF(below 79.0°F)=0.4757; ECMWF N(78.56, 3.00) CDF(below 79.0°F)=0.5422; weighted=0.5056 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.10 seasonal_mult=1.4 | commercial: openweathermap forecast=79.6F; N(79.6, 3.5) CDF(below 79.0F)=0.4286; 1d horizon | mos: MOS KATL forecast=63.0F; N(63.0, 2.5) CDF(below 79.0F)=0.9990; 1d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=2.1°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.30, qty=58
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87° NO 0.275 0.600 -0.325 WIN climatology: Base rate (analog-weighted): 8.6% in [86.0, 88.0)F from 460 samples +/-5d of May 05 | nwp: GFS N(83.80, 4.50) CDF([86.0, 88.0)°F)=0.1109; ECMWF N(81.61, 4.50) CDF([86.0, 88.0)°F)=0.0877; weighted=0.1005 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.84 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-0.5°F | commercial: openweathermap forecast=84.0F; N(84.0, 4.5) CDF([86.0, 88.0)F)=0.1401; 0d horizon | mos: MOS KMIA forecast=86.0F; N(86.0, 3.2) CDF([86.0, 88.0)F)=0.2308; 0d horizon | Kelly: f=0.0300 (spread=1.8°F mult=1.00), cost=$30.30, qty=74

DB: paper_run_20260428_080828.db